bot-stats

quick analysis of our eth-flipper-sim (all credit to our team member: Kwer)

The objective is to help you understand how to follow the bot's trades for best performances. Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice. I am not a professional data analyst. Some of the data may be incorrect but the trends are accurate. The next reviews will be better I just wanted to publish something quickly so you already have some support. Additionally to the provided information in these reports, AG team will use those insights to fine-tune the bot strategy to make it even more efficient. Overall, the bot has a 66% success rate for around 4.5 ETH of profits in 2022. It has made a total of 374 trades in the last 8 months. Some factors have a much greater influence on the bot's success rate than others. 1. The date of the trade 2. The Alpha Score Date If we look at the monthly success rate, we can notice that the overall success rate is reduced because of the period from August to October.

It was during these three months that we had important bearish movements on the ETH when we were already in a bearish structure for a long time.

The first months of the bot's activity were also during strong bearish periods, but the volume on OpenSea was still very high at that time compared to these last months.

We notice that the monthly volume trend on OpenSea follows the Ethereum price trend. Also, we can notice that the success rate of the bot seems to correlate with the volume on OpenSea. We can imagine that if the bot had been active from January to March 2022 it would have had a success rate higher than 80%. This is because most of the time the bot is triggered during periods of high 'momentum' for each project, and volumes are naturally higher at these times when OpenSea has more active users and more overall volume.

Weekday

If you break down the success rate by day of the week, you can see that the weekend is the best time to be successful. People generally have more free time on the weekends, which brings more volume to the market. If we break down the profits by each day of the week we notice first of all that we have a much lower total loss than the other days for the trades opened on Saturday.

Alpha Score From the charts below, we can interpret that the Alpha Score seems to be another good indicator of the potential of a trade. We notice first that the higher the Alpha Score the less trades are made (AS #2). 80% of the trades have a score lower than 30.

The graphs AS #3 and AS #4 show us that the higher the Alpha Score, the higher the success rate and the profits.

It is important to note that we do not have enough data on trades made in high Alpha Score ranks to be able to rely on the data correctly.

What to do to increase your success rate by following the bot? Important criterias the bot doesn't take into account: - Market conditions : It is important not to neglect this aspect before deciding to follow the bot which does not take them into account. We have seen here the monthly trends but the same things apply in weekly / daily. - Number of portfolios that minted (which may reduce the number of secondary market purchases, and thus skew the Alpha score). - Gas costs : distorts the success rate because many trades have low purchase prices Optimized set-up' to increase the probability of success - Trade during periods with decent volumes - Trade on weekends (Saturday is by far the best day of the week) - Avoid following the bot when buying below 0.04-0.05 - Sell at the same time as the bot - Rely on the Alpha Score - Bonus: use a wallet especially for following the bot so you can monitor your performances